Climate change means any significant change in climate, like temperature or rainfall, over a 30 year period or more. If the climate is changing, then the 30 year average temperature, or rainfall, or number of sunny days, is changing. (http://uk.climate4classrooms.org) a long-term change in the earth's climate, especially a change due to an increase in the average atmospheric temperature example Melting glaciers imply that life in the Arctic is affected by climate change.
Climate variability defined as the way climate fluctuates yearly above or below a long-term average value.in term of average and range. Climate change and variability occurs because of changes to Earth’s environment, like changes in its orbit around the sun or human modification of the atmosphere. There is nothing inherently wrong with climate change. It has happened in the past and will happen again. The current concern stems from the rate of change. (http://sdt.unwto.org/)
Climate is an essential resource for tourism, and especially for the beach, nature and winter sport tourism segments. Changing climate and weather patterns at tourist destinations and tourist generating countries can significantly affect the tourists’ comfort and their travel decisions. Changing demand patterns and tourist flows will have impacts on tourism businesses and on host communities, as well as knock off effects on related sectors, such as agriculture, handicrafts or construction. In small island states especially Zanzibar and other developing countries, where tourism is a major economic activity, any significant reduction in tourist arrivals will have serious employment impacts and generate further poverty.
MAIN IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR TOURISM DEVELOPMENT
Warmer temperatures altered seasonality, heat stress for tourists, cooling costs, changes in: plant wildlife-insect populations and distribution range, infectious disease ranges increased, loss of recreational value and carrying capacity of beaches, loss of property value resulting from declining amenity value, other facilities will be faced with challenges affecting property, the variability of businesses and earnings. This include: Loss of recreational value and carrying capacity of beaches, loss of property value resulting from declining amenity value, loss of land value, deterioration of landscape and visual appreciation((Scott and McBoyle, 2006). ).this at large affect the development of tourism because many tourists attracted by good climatic condition without extreme warmer temperature, and this undermine the development especially in macroeconomic term in GDP contribution.
Decreasing snow cover and shrinking glaciers that cause Lack of snow in winter sport destinations, increased snow-making costs, shorter winter sports seasons, aesthetics of landscape reduced (Scott and McBoyle, 2006).this at large affect the development of tourism because many tourists loss of marine ecosystems (corals) for diving/snorkeling related tourism. There are also threats to tourism hotels and infrastructure from coastal erosion and sea level rise, and in the longer-term, to key tourist areas such as Stone Town. It is stressed that tackling the threats of climate change in other sectors will reduce many of the potential impacts on tourism (or to put it another way, failure to tackle the issues in other sectors will have detrimental effects on tourism). (Technical Report. May 2012).also at large extent affect the tourism development in many areas especially in island states like Zanzibar.
Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme storms: Risk for tourism facilities, increased insurance costs, loss of insurability, business interruption costs reduced precipitation and increased evaporation in some regions. (Scott and McBoyle, 2006).this affect the tourism development because many recreation of tourist and archaeological assets are destroy and cause the delay of tourism development in many island states like Zanzibar.
Water shortages, competition over water between tourism and other sectors, desertification, increased wildfires threatening infrastructure and affecting demand. (Scott and McBoyle, 2006).fore stance accessibility of pure water for different activity especially in hotel and in destination in general can affect at large the issue of tourism activity in different areas in other hand Increased frequency of heavy precipitation in some regions Flooding damage to historic architectural and cultural assets, damage to tourism infrastructure, altered seasonality (beaches, biodiversity, river flow) (Scott and McBoyle, 2006).
Sea level rise and Coastal erosion, loss of beach area, higher costs to protect and maintain waterfronts and sea defenses Sea surface temperature rise Increased coral bleaching and marine resource and aesthetic degradation in dive and snorkel destinations Sea Level Rise .Sea level rise is expected to pose one of the greatest threats to tourism in the region. It will exacerbate wave and storm surge effects occurring with hurricanes. Islands will remain vulnerable whether or not the trend in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes is linked to climate variability or climate change.
Impact on beach and Seaside, (Technical Report. May 2012). Property owners will need to cope with sea level rise impacts on two fronts. One is event driven effects associated with wave, storm surge and wind related damage and their direct and indirect damages and cost. The other is from the erosion, land loss and inundation which is likely to be gradual and sustained. A major concern will be how this impacts on property value and income over time. Beach resorts and Changes in terrestrial and marine biodiversity loss of natural attractions and species from destinations, higher risk of diseases in tropical-subtropical countries Climate change is likely to have a number of effects on sea-grasses from a large number of factors including changes in salinity and temperature, ocean acidification, storm activity and ultraviolet irradiance. However, there could also be some beneficial effects as increases in the amount of dissolved CO2 could lead to higher rates of photosynthesis.
More frequent and larger forest fires Loss of natural attractions, increase of flooding risk, damage to tourism infrastructure .soil changes (such as moisture levels, erosion and acidity) loss of archaeological assets and other natural resources, with impacts on destination attractions.(WTO-UNEP-WMO 2008) These forests support wider biodiversity, and changes to these areas and other terrestrial vegetation will also affect wider biodiversity. Some species are capable of adapting to climatic shifts will survive, but for an island state such as Zanzibar, the potential for species movement is very limited, and this is highlighted as a critical issue. Example in Zanzibar Jozani forest loose many natural attraction in term of trees like “mvinje” mkaratusi’” and in animals such as kima punju and tiger was are found now are disappear in large extent.
Generally the above explanation is about the impact of climatic change and variability to tourism development that now is very critical issue in all the world that are normally influenced by natural causes and artificial causes such as issue of industrialization and technological advancement In term of modernization of transport tools like air planes, cars, buses and many motor cars that use oil as energy for transportation. So is very important for industrial countries to reduce the production in industries that that are not sustainable to environment so as to reduce the impact of climatic variability and change on tourism development in many Island states like Zanzibar.